The USD/JPY pair continues to trade in a range, with the intraday bias remaining neutral. It is anticipated that there will be another increase as long as the support at 151.44 is maintained. If there is sustained trading above the 61.8% retracement level of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39, this could lead to a retest of the high at 161.94. However, caution is advised as there is a bearish divergence condition in the 4-hour MACD. A decisive break of 151.44 would indicate a potential short-term peak and could shift the bias back to the downside towards the 55-day EMA, currently situated at 149.07.
Looking at the bigger picture, the price movements from 161.94 are viewed as a corrective pattern within the larger uptrend from 102.58 (the 2021 low). It is likely that a medium-term consolidation phase is forming, with the range set between the 38.2% retracement level of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and the high at 161.94. However, if there is a sustained break below 139.26, it could signal a deeper medium-term decline towards the 61.8% retracement level at 125.25.
It is essential for traders and investors to monitor these key levels and indicators closely to make informed decisions regarding their positions in the USD/JPY pair. Market sentiment and economic data releases can also influence the direction of the currency pair, so staying updated on relevant news and events is crucial for successful trading in the forex market.
