Last week, USD/JPY saw a slight increase in value despite a decrease in upside momentum. The 4-hour MACD indicator showed this trend. Analysts predict a further increase in value as long as the minor support level of 148.84 holds, with a potential target of 153.39, which represents a 61.8% retracement from 161.94 to 139.57. However, if the support level of 148.84 is breached, the intraday bias may shift to a neutral stance. Additionally, breaking the resistance turned support level of 146.48 could signal the completion of the rebound from 139.57.
Looking at the bigger picture, market analysts view the price actions from 161.94 as part of a corrective pattern within an upward trend that started from the low of 102.58 in 2021. The medium-term consolidation range is expected to be between the 38.2% retracement level of 139.26 and 161.94. If the support level of 139.26 is broken, there is a possibility of a deeper decline towards the 61.8% retracement level at 125.25.
In the long term, it is too early to determine if the uptrend from the 2011 low of 75.56 has concluded. However, a medium-term corrective phase seems to have begun, with a potential risk of a significant correction towards the 55 M EMA, which is currently at 133.73. This suggests that investors should closely monitor the market movements and be prepared for potential fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate in the coming days.
