The EUR/USD pair saw a retreat after initially rising to 1.1007 last week, leading to consolidations. The bias for the upcoming week remains neutral at first. Although a deeper retreat is possible, the downside is expected to be well contained above the 1.0776 support level. If the pair breaks above the minor resistance at 1.0944, it could retest 1.1007. A further breakthrough could resume the rally from 1.0665 to the next target at 1.1056.
Looking at the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1274 are considered a corrective pattern that is still ongoing. A break of the resistance at 1.1138 would indicate that the rise from the 0.9534 low in 2022 is ready to continue towards 1.1274 in 2023. However, if the support at 1.0776 is broken, it could lead to another leg down towards the 1.0447 support level.
In the long term perspective, it is believed that a bottom has been established at 0.9534 in 2022. A sustained break above the 55 M EMA, currently at 1.1008, would increase the likelihood of a long term reversal. Nonetheless, a firm break of the structural resistance at 1.2348 is necessary to confirm this reversal. If rejected by the 55 M EMA, the bearish trend could continue, potentially leading to a further decline from the 2008 high of 1.6039 through 0.9534 at a later stage.
