The USD/JPY pair saw an increase from 139.57 last week, reaching a high of 156.74 before pulling back. This week, the initial bias remains neutral, and there may be some consolidation. However, a further rally is anticipated as long as the support at 151.27 is maintained. If the price goes above 156.74, the next target would be the 61.8% projection level at 158.83, calculated from 141.63 to 153.87 starting from 151.27.
Looking at the bigger picture, the movement from 161.94 is viewed as a corrective pattern following the rise from 102.58 in 2021. The medium-term consolidation range is expected to be between the 38.2% retracement level of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. However, a sustained break below 139.26 could lead to a deeper medium-term decline towards the 61.8% retracement level at 125.25.
In the long term, it is too early to determine if the uptrend from the 2011 low of 75.56 has ended. Nonetheless, a medium-term corrective phase seems to have started, with a potential for a significant correction towards the 55 M EMA currently at 134.54.
