The upcoming economic events for the week are as follows:
– Monday: PBoC LPR announcement
– Tuesday: NBH Announcement, IMF World Economic Outlook
– Wednesday: BoC Announcement
– Thursday: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Oct)
– Friday: PBoC MLF (TBC), CBR Announcement, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct), German Ifo (Oct), US Durable Goods (Sep), US University of Michigan Final (Oct)
PBoC LPR (Monday):
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is set to announce the latest Loan Prime Rates next week. Chinese banks are likely to reduce the benchmark lending rates following recent policy support measures by China’s central bank and government. The PBoC previously maintained the 1-Year LPR at 3.35% and the 5-Year LPR at 3.85%. Recent rate cuts and instructions to banks to lower interest rates signal a potential reduction in LPRs.
BoC Announcement (Wednesday):
The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 50bps to 3.75%. Governor Macklem’s remarks suggest that bigger cuts are possible if the economy weakens. The focus will be on the rate decision and the statement for guidance on economic forecasts. Soft inflation data and business sentiment point towards a 50bps rate cut.
EZ PMI (Thursday):
Expectations for October’s manufacturing PMI to rise slightly, while services may pick up, leaving the composite at 49.7. Weakness in the September composite metric may continue due to French tax measures. A soft release could lead to dovish pricing for the ECB’s December meeting.
UK PMI (Thursday):
Expectations are for a slight decline in the services and manufacturing PMI for October, leaving the composite at 52.4. Analysts expect a positive outlook for the UK economy, with concerns over the upcoming UK budget. A 25bps rate cut is expected at the BoE’s November meeting, with a strong report potentially affecting future MPC decisions.
Overall, the upcoming economic events indicate potential rate cuts, mixed PMI data, and the impact of global economic trends on various countries. These events will be closely watched by investors and policymakers for insights into the economic outlook.
