The latest odds for the US Presidential election on various betting sites show a close race between Trump and Harris. One French man named Théo has placed a $30 million bet on Trump at Kalshi, citing reasons such as underestimated Trump support in previous elections and the “shy Trump voter effect.”
Théo expressed skepticism towards pollsters’ methodologies and changes made since 2016 and 2020. He criticized mainstream media outlets for favoring Harris and fueling social unrest by predicting a close race instead of a Trump blowout.
Despite the skepticism towards polls, there are three reasons why betting odds have improved for Harris. Firstly, many believe that pollsters may be overcompensating for past underestimations of Trump, leading to more Republican-leaning results. Nate Silver argues that the traumatic experiences of pollsters in 2016 and 2020 have affected their confidence in their own methods.
Secondly, early voting data shows a significant lead for Harris among women in key states like Michigan. If this trend continues through in-person voting, it could sway the election in her favor.
Lastly, voter enthusiasm for Harris among Democrats seems to be higher than it was for Biden or even Obama, according to a Gallup chart. This increased enthusiasm could translate into higher voter turnout for Harris on Election Day.
Overall, the betting odds for the US Presidential election reflect a tight race between Trump and Harris, with various factors influencing the outcome. The unpredictability of polls and the dynamics of early voting and voter enthusiasm suggest that the final result will only be known once all the votes are counted.
