Gold has been the shining star in the world of investments, outperforming other asset classes and providing protection against various risk events. In the third quarter, gold saw a remarkable increase of 14%, bringing its year-on-year growth to an impressive 42%. This growth surpasses even the annual return of the S&P 500, indicating the strength of the precious metal in the current market.
As we enter the final quarter of the year, there are several factors that could impact the price of gold. The uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s rate cuts and the looming US federal election are key areas to watch. The recent positive jobs report has raised doubts about the need for further rate cuts, resulting in a surge in Treasury yields. However, signs of economic softness, such as rising delinquency rates and contracting PMI numbers, suggest that the economy may not be as robust as it seems.
Looking ahead, the US federal election could have a significant impact on the markets. The possibility of a second Trump term or a win for Kamala Harris could lead to different outcomes for inflation and trade policies. Trump’s presidency could bring inflationary pressures, while Harris may take a more balanced approach to US-China relations. These potential scenarios could influence investor sentiment and drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, continue to pose a threat to stability. The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran could escalate further, adding to the uncertainty in the region. This geopolitical noise could impact the price of gold as investors seek safe-haven assets in times of conflict.
From a technical standpoint, gold’s outlook remains positive, following a bullish Elliot wave pattern. While a pullback in price may occur, a bounce back above key support levels could signal further upside potential. Investors will be closely monitoring the price movement to identify potential entry and exit points in the market.
In conclusion, gold’s performance in the final quarter will be influenced by a combination of economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Understanding these factors and their potential impact on the price of gold will be crucial for investors looking to navigate the market in Q4.