The final consumer sentiment in the US for October came in at 70.5, beating expectations of 69.0. This positive news was accompanied by the US September durable goods orders, which were slightly lower than expected at -0.8% compared to -1.0%. In Canada, retail sales for August were up by 0.4%, slightly below the expected 0.5%. The new housing price index for September in Canada remained unchanged at 0.0% from the previous month.
On the economic front, the Baker Hughes US oil rig count decreased by 2. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that if the population growth slows more than anticipated, the headline GDP will be lower. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasted a 3.3% growth rate for Q3, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 3.4%.
In the political arena, a recent CNN poll showed a tight race between President Trump and Vice President Harris, both polling at 47%. In the tech world, Nvidia once again claimed the title of the world’s most valuable company.
Market movements saw gold prices rising by $8 to $2743, while US 10-year yields increased by 3.6 bps to 4.23%. WTI crude oil also saw a gain of $1.43, reaching $71.63. The S&P 500 ended the day flat, with the USD leading and the NZD lagging behind.
The mood in the markets took a turn for the worse during US trading hours, with the NZD and AUD finishing at their lowest points. The S&P 500 initially rose but ended the day flat. There was no clear catalyst for the shift in sentiment, which saw steady buying of the US dollar and selling of bonds. Speculation suggests that concerns about the upcoming election or events in the Middle East may have contributed to the market unease.
Despite the dollar’s strength, gold managed to climb $25 from its lows, marking its best weekly close ever. Crude oil also defied the trend by rising over $1, possibly due to concerns about the Middle East or position adjustments. The USD/CAD pair reached its highest level since early August, signaling a potential major break in the coming weeks. On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair hit its lowest point since August but still has some room before reaching post-pandemic lows. This pair may be influenced by developments in China’s fiscal stimulus efforts in the near future.
