EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Comprehensive Analysis and Future Projections
The EUR/USD pair experienced a significant rebound last week, indicating that the correction from 1.1200 may have reached its conclusion at 1.1001. This development suggests that the initial bias for the upcoming week leans slightly towards the upside. Should there be a decisive break above 1.1200, the rally from 1.0665 to the high of 1.1274 is likely to resume, potentially ushering in a larger uptrend. On the flip side, a break below 1.1072 could shift the bias back to the downside, targeting the support level at 1.1001.
Understanding the Bigger Picture
Zooming out to analyze the broader context, the breach of the 1.1138 resistance level signals that the corrective phase from 1.1274 might have concluded at 1.0665. A clear move beyond 1.1274, which marks the 2023 high, would confirm the continuation of the overall uptrend from the 2022 low of 0.9534. In this scenario, the next target would be the 61.8% projection of the range from 0.9534 to 1.1274, calculated from 1.0665, at the level of 1.1740. This bullish outlook remains viable as long as the 1.0947 resistance turned support remains intact.
Long-Term Outlook and Potential Trends
Looking further into the long-term perspective, the establishment of a long-term bottom at 0.9534 (2022 low) is a significant development. The strong breach of the 55 M EMA, currently positioned at 1.1018, is viewed as the initial indication of a bullish trend reversal. However, a definitive break above the structural resistance at 1.2348 is required to confirm this trend reversal. Without such confirmation, the price movements from 0.9534 could still evolve into a consolidation pattern, warranting caution and close monitoring.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair’s recent performance underscores the dynamic nature of the forex market, where trends can shift rapidly based on various factors including economic data, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Traders and investors must remain vigilant, adapting their strategies to navigate the market’s twists and turns effectively.
