The EUR/USD pair saw a decline from 1.1213 to 1.0681 last week, but it has since rebounded. The outlook for this week remains uncertain, with the possibility of further consolidations. However, the overall trend is expected to be bearish as long as the resistance at 1.0936 holds. If the pair falls below 1.0681, the next targets are at 1.0656 and 1.0483.
Looking at the bigger picture, the recent price movements are seen as a consolidation phase within an upward trend that started from the 2022 low of 0.9534. The current decline from 1.1213 is considered the third leg of this consolidation. The downside is expected to be limited by the 50% retracement level at 1.0404, paving the way for a resumption of the uptrend in the future.
In the long term, it is believed that the pair has established a bottom at 0.9534 (2022 low). However, the EUR/USD is currently facing challenges in staying above the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1011. As a result, the outlook for the pair is uncertain at this point, with a neutral stance being the most likely scenario.
Despite the recent fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair, traders are advised to monitor the key resistance levels at 1.0936 and support levels at 1.0681 closely to gauge the future direction of the pair. Additionally, keeping an eye on the 55-day EMA at 1.1011 can provide further insights into the potential trends in the long term.
Overall, while short-term uncertainties persist, the EUR/USD pair’s long-term outlook remains positive, with the potential for a resumption of the upward trend once the current consolidation phase is completed. As always, traders are encouraged to exercise caution and implement risk management strategies to navigate the fluctuations in the forex market effectively.
