The EUR/USD pair is showing a slightly upward bias during the day as it continues to rebound from the short-term bottom of 1.0760. However, there is expected to be strong resistance around the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0937, which could limit further upside movement. If the price falls below the minor support level of 1.0831, we may see a retest of the 1.0760 level first, followed by a potential drop to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0740.
Looking at the broader picture, the price movements from the high of 1.1274 in 2023 are viewed as a consolidation phase within the overall uptrend from the low of 0.9534 in 2022. The recent decline from 1.1213 is considered the third leg of this consolidation pattern. It is expected that the downside movement will be contained by the 50% retracement level at 1.0404, which is the range between the 2022 low and the 2023 high. This containment could lead to a resumption of the uptrend at a later stage.
Overall, the EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing a moderate upward trend, but faces significant resistance at the 55-day EMA. Traders should pay attention to the support levels at 1.0831 and 1.0760, as a break below these levels could signal further downside potential. On the other hand, a successful breakout above the 55-day EMA could indicate a continuation of the rebound from the short-term bottom.
