The EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing a neutral bias for the day, with a possibility of more consolidations. However, the overall outlook remains bearish as long as the 1.0760 support turned resistance level is not breached. If there is a firm break below the 1.0495 level, it could lead to a resumption of the downward movement from 1.1213, targeting the 1.0447 support level, followed by the key Fibonacci level at 1.0404.
Looking at the bigger picture, the price actions from the 1.1274 high in 2023 are considered a consolidation pattern within an uptrend from the 0.9534 low in 2022, with the current fall from 1.1213 being the third leg of this pattern. It is expected that the downside will be limited by the 50% retracement level of the upswing from 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0404, which could lead to a resumption of the uptrend in the future. However, a decisive break below 1.0404 would increase the likelihood of a reversal, with a potential target at the 61.8% retracement level of 1.0199.
In summary, the EUR/USD pair is facing a neutral bias in the short term, with a bearish outlook as long as the 1.0760 resistance level holds. Traders should keep an eye on the key support levels at 1.0495, 1.0447, and 1.0404 for potential trading opportunities based on the price action. The overall trend remains bullish in the long term, but a break below 1.0404 could signal a trend reversal towards lower levels.
