EUR/USD is currently trading within the range of 1.0330 to 1.0609. The short-term bias is neutral with a preference for further decline. A break below 1.0330 would signal a continuation of the downtrend from 1.1213. Additionally, consistent trading below the key fibonacci level of 1.0404 would indicate a larger bearish outlook. However, a decisive break above 1.0609 would confirm a potential short-term bottom and shift the bias to the upside towards the 1.0760 resistance level.
Looking at the broader picture, the focus is now on the 50% retracement level of the upswing from the 2022 low of 0.9534 to the 2023 high of 1.1274, which is at 1.0404. A strong bounce from this level would suggest that the price action since the 2023 high is just a medium-term consolidation phase. On the other hand, a sustained breach of 1.0404 would increase the probability of a reversal of the entire uptrend from the 2022 low. In this scenario, the next target would be the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0199, followed by a retest of the 0.9534 low.
In summary, the EUR/USD pair is currently range-bound with a neutral bias in the short term. Traders should keep a close eye on the key levels of 1.0330, 1.0404, and 1.0609 for potential breakout opportunities. The broader outlook suggests that a bounce from 1.0404 could lead to a resumption of the uptrend, while a sustained decline below this level would indicate a trend reversal with further downside potential. As always, it is essential to monitor market developments and adjust trading strategies accordingly to navigate the ever-changing forex landscape.
