The US 100 index is currently trading sideways, just below its all-time high, as it grapples with the August 5, 2024 trendline. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish, with investors closely monitoring geopolitical tensions and tariff announcements by President-elect Trump. The bullish trend that started on August 5 needs to establish a new higher high to maintain its momentum.
In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is slightly above its midpoint, indicating some lingering bullish pressure. However, the stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought area without the same level of momentum seen during the November 11, 2024 peak. The ADX suggests a lack of conviction in the current movement, hovering below its midpoint and signaling a trendless market.
Looking ahead, if the bulls can sustain momentum, they may aim to keep the US 100 index above the 20,683-20,772 range and target a move towards 21,231. Breaking above this level could open the door to a new all-time high, with 21,500 as the initial target. Further upside potential lies beyond, with the 200% Fibonacci extension level positioned above 23,000.
On the other hand, if the bears take control, they might push the index below the critical 20,683-20,772 support zone, which includes key Fibonacci levels and trendlines. A breakthrough below this area could shift the balance in favor of the bears, potentially testing the support of the 50- and 100-day SMAs at 20,345 and 19,792 respectively.
In conclusion, the US 100 index is showing a gradual upward trend, but the momentum remains fragile amid upcoming US data releases and a holiday-shortened trading week due to Thanksgiving. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels to gauge the market’s next move.
